Everyone right now is trying to find the crystal ball to look into, in order to predict the future. I wish it were that easy. One of the questions many wish they could have an answered is, whether or not now is the time to buy a home. Some are advising us to sit out the current real estate market and instead rent for the next year or two. In many cases the buy and hold strategy works, in this case I do not agree with this advice and find that much of the reasons provided for the wait and see theory is shear fear. Home ownership means a lot to Americans as a whole, fear should not be a driving factor in our decision making. Now it will have an impact on what we do, but we need to use facts to help us make conservative decisions, in order to minimize mistakes and thus limit our fears. I also realize that the financial aspects of purchasing a home today is a big concern, but later in this post I will show how we can use financing to your advantage. My challenge is any advice I give because I am in the real estate community will have a tendency to be immediately dismissed as self-serving. Keep reading and see if you agree with me or not.
For that very reason, I would like to start with introducing you to three articles from three different groups not involved in selling of real estate (click the blue links below to find out more):
Citigroup – Josh Levin, CFA
“When we examine the relationships between mortgage payments and income and mortgage payments and rent, we see that these relationships have also reverted back to or below equilibrium points. In some cases, particularly when mortgage payments are compared to the cost of renting, home prices actually appear cheap.”
JP Morgan – CHRISTINE RICCIARDI
“JPMorgan analysts said ‘the continuation of falling rental vacancies and rising rental demand will make home buying increasingly attractive’, especially as rental prices increase.”
Business School professors Eli Beracha and Ken H. Johnson
“Fundamental drivers now appear to be in place that favors home ownership over renting in the near term future…
The second finding might seem unwise to many given the recent crash in the real estate markets around the country. However, rent-to-price ratios now seem to be in place along with other fundamental drivers that favor ownership over renting…
Conditions (historically low mortgage rates and relatively low rent-to-price ratios) now seem in place to favor future purchases.”
Now let’s only use these quotes to open the discussion, now how about we transition the conversation to actually numbers to expand the idea. Below I have illustrated a classic buy now versus a wait and see example. All assumptions are described for us, but let me point out the basics again. You want to buy a $100,000 home now, but you think the market will go down an additional 5% in the next few months. Which means the home will now cost $95,000. If you could time the low, that would be great. In the back of your mind or your crystal ball, you need to find the answer to where will interest rates be later when you are ready to close. The assumption is that rate will not stay this low, so I have illustrated what happens if the rate does climb. A simple 1% increase in interest rates makes your payment $32 higher, even if the price did drop 5%. Second illustration shows, no price drop, but rates do go up causing a $60 higher payment. And the last illustration shows rates get worse and price actually increases by $5,000.

Above is the numbers for the analytically minded among those reading, the graph below is for the visual learners. If you buy now and take the lower rate for the next 5 years, you will have paid an additional $1,200 to principal over the rate increasing and price remaining the same. In all cases buying now, wins! Now there is a possibility, it is not probably, that rates will go lower and homes will also go down in value.

In Summary
Do research looking at trends, house values will bottom. No one knows when or if that has already happened. What we do understand is that trends repeat. As unemployment number decrease in our local markets, house values will raise, as will the interest rates. The major reason for this is that if more people are working, more people will have money to spend. As that supply increases, inflation will occur. When inflation rises rates will increase. We are seeing a small increase in inflation now, but it could change quickly. I would not wait to buy your home on sale, but pay more for it each month.
Rent vs. Buy
You hear this all the time; it is a buyer’s or seller’s market, what does that mean? A real estate agent will be knowledgeable on what the market is like in the location you will be looking to buy in. A seller’s market means that homes are selling very quickly because the demand for real estate is high; usually the seller receives multiple offers on their home above asking price. This transfers the power to the seller, which is usually not a good time to buy. Conversely, in a buyer’s market homes for sale sit on the market longer. As the buyer you have the upper hand since you theoretically have more homes to choose from and can potentially negotiate a lower price. If a bank is involved in the process as part of a short sale or foreclosure purchase, the price can be negotiated in either a buyer’s or seller’s market. When shopping for a home, it is better to wait for a buyer’s market if possible, although the “if possible” is the hard part. Large buyer’s markets only come around every so often, and it is usually after a large down-turn in the economy. If you are a buyer and a seller at the same time, remember you will not be able to get max dollar for your sale and low ball the home you are looking to buy. Meaning if you are in a buyer’s market and rates are low, it makes more sense to discount your existing home and buy the new one, rather than keep the asking price higher than you will ever get for it.


In the money game, you want to build excitement and momentum through a series of small victories; this happens by paying off the smallest debt first and then applying the payment savings to the next smallest debt. Now many will say in the game another strategy is to pay off the highest interest rate first, I have run the numbers on hundreds of cases and the debt free moment is almost the same in either case. Sadly, there is one thing that will happen if you tackle the higher interest rate first, most often you will quit playing the game. If you do not see your debt load decreasing you will not stay excited and focused. Once the game is started and the ball is rolling the force becomes very powerful against the debt and builds future wealth.

The seminar is held not to singly encourage you to take out a reverse mortgage but to bring forth to you the arrangement’s pros and cons and present you with other options. Their aim is to educate you in managing your finances in order for you not make emotional decisions that you may later regret. They can be straightforward and advise you if a reverse mortgage would suit your needs depending on your current financial status.
e a home.



