
The graph above shows the long-term rates for the treasury bonds from 1799 to 2008. Remember the government uses T-bills to finance its debt. The white gap in the graph was a time when there was no government debt.
So why am I saying this makes some Adjustable Rate Mortgages look good, I am sorry the graph is a little blurry, but in the middle it shows the average over that 200 year time frame the rate was 4.71%. The only time that the rate was way above the average was when the Fed did not understand inflation and which required the treasuries to be sold at a higher rate to out pace inflation.
So how does that translate to mortgages, and more importantly, how does that relate to saving money if I do a variable rate over a fixed rate? Good question, I get this question all the time. Well the when adjustable rate mortgages become adjustable they use two part to calculate the new interest rate. First is the margin or spread the bank charges on the money. This is usually between 1.5% and 2.75%. On FHA adjustable rate mortgages, most are at 2.25%. The second part needed to calculate the new interest rate is the index, FHA loans use the yields on Treasury securities at “constant maturity” or fancy words for they average long term bonds to create an moving average index.
The average for the last 20 years is, 4.01466% and the last 10 years is 3.03792%. If we add the margin to the average index the rate would be between 5.25% and 6.25% on average.
A 30 year fixed mortgage over the same time period would be around 6.75% on average. Now I know you have been told that the adjustable rates are what caused most of the financial melt down, but it was not the product that was bad, rather the individuals using the product not using it properly. For many it was like playing basketball with a football. Can you get lucky and make a basket with the football, sure but try to dribble a football on a fast break. My point simply is that it can be used as a great mortgage option, if used with part of the rest of your financial plan.
The other thing to remember is that bankers know that you will refinance right now almost every four year minimum. So if you take the higher rate on the fixed product the bank makes more money. If you do this every time you do a loan, the bank makes a lot more money. Think back, how many times have you refinanced in the last 10 years? How many in the last five? I have some clients that have use this option to refinance about every 18 months and each time we lowered their rate without adding any closing costs to their loan. You can do the same thing!
All I ask you to do is stop being afraid and start doing some research, see if this would work for you as well.
Now let me tell you the catalyst that makes this work even better. You need to not take the adjustable rate to just lower your payment and spend the, that would be a disservice to yourself; rather you need to make your mortgage payment at the 30 year rate. So you are adding additional principle payments each and every month against your loan. Spending the difference is what most people used adjustable rates programs for in the past.


I had only found census data back to 1954 and some limited data for previous decades. I used some historical data that can be found to calculate annual home appreciation at 4.51% from 1960-2009 and dating back to the 1920’s homes have historically appreciated around 4.12% annually.
Have you ever looked for a way to finance college education for your kids? Does starting the business of a life time seem like only a dream? Or maybe you want to buy a new car and deduct the interest on your federal taxes? How about cash for some home improvements? Maybe you just want a way to buy your dream house while your old house is being sold. If any of these scenarios sound familiar, then maybe you will want to look into refinancing your loan.
So the question is: How do you go about getting out of credit card debt? The answer is discipline. You must discipline yourself. How long have you been using your credit cards to live on? Do you even remember what a dollar bill looks like? Now you’re in trouble because you can’t make all those payments with the money you make. This is called “living beyond your means”.